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Characterisation of Groundwater Drought Using Distributed Modelling, Standardised Indices, and Principal Component
V Christelis1, M M Mansour1, C R Jackson1
1British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG UK.
Water Resources Management (Dordrecht, Netherlands)
|July 3, 2025
Summary
A new modeling framework accurately characterizes groundwater drought, even without direct measurements. It revealed that precipitation data alone can be unreliable for predicting groundwater drought, especially during extreme heatwaves.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology
- Hydrogeology
- Environmental Modeling
Background:
- Groundwater drought characterization is challenging due to limited observational data.
- Understanding catchment-scale drought dynamics is crucial for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a modeling framework for characterizing groundwater drought at a catchment scale.
- To assess historical groundwater drought events in a Chalk aquifer in southern England (1971-2004).
Main Methods:
- Developed a numerical groundwater model simulating recharge and groundwater level fluctuations.
- Applied the Standardized Groundwater Level Index (SGI) to assess drought severity and duration.
- Utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on SGI and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data.
Main Results:
- Identified three major groundwater drought events between 1971-2004.
- Observed spatial inconsistencies in drought severity and duration among events.
- PCA showed SPI was a poor predictor of groundwater drought during the 2003 heatwave.
Conclusions:
- The proposed modeling framework accurately captured groundwater drought dynamics, including resilience during extreme events.
- Significant differences between SPI and SGI highlight the influence of hydrological and hydrogeological catchment features on groundwater drought.
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