Trend changes in tourism climate suitability in China and the impact of multiple atmospheric circulation patterns

In recent years, climate change has profoundly impacted the global environment by altering temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables. These changes have affected ecosystems and agricultural production and significantly impacted tourism, an economic activity dependent on climatic conditions. Atmospheric circulation is a key factor influencing regional climate patterns. By regulating meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, it affects a region's climate characteristics and suitability for tourism. However, studies on this topic remain scarce. Therefore, this study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) in China from 1961 to 2020, future trends, and the teleconnection relationship with circulation elements. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China's tourism climate comfort shows a slight downward trend but is expected to increase in the future. (2) Tourism climate suitability varies significantly by month, with April to October being the most desirable months for tourism. (3) Except in winter, the average TCI values for all other seasons are rated 'good' or above nationwide. (4) The NINO3.4, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have counteracting effects on the TCI to some extent. The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for the development of climate-resilient tourism zoning and inform policy responses to climate change.