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Utility of Delta Shock Index in Predicting Mortality and Clinical Outcomes at a Rural Level One Trauma Center
Aliya G Burns1, Matthew A Leonard2, Hannah W Collins2
1Quillen College of Medicine, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, USA.
The American Surgeon
|July 4, 2025
Summary
Positive Delta Shock Index (+ΔSI) in rural trauma patients indicates a higher risk of mortality and longer hospital stays. This dynamic measure effectively predicts adverse outcomes in this specific setting.
Area of Science:
- Trauma Care
- Emergency Medicine
- Hemodynamic Monitoring
Background:
- The Shock Index (SI) is a key indicator of hemodynamic status and patient prognosis.
- Delta Shock Index (ΔSI), representing changes in SI over time, offers dynamic insights into patient deterioration and mortality risk.
- The predictive utility of ΔSI in rural trauma populations remains underexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the hypothesis that ΔSI has significant predictive value for patient outcomes in a rural trauma setting.
- To evaluate the association between positive ΔSI (+ΔSI) and adverse outcomes, including mortality, hospital length of stay (HLOS), ICU length of stay (ILOS), and blood transfusion requirements.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of trauma registry data from January 2017 to July 2023 at a rural Level 1 trauma center.
- Calculation of SI (Heart Rate/Systolic Blood Pressure) at transfer facility, scene, and trauma bay (TB).
- Computation of ΔSI as the change from TB arrival SI compared to earlier measurements; stratification into +ΔSI and zero/negative ΔSI groups.
Main Results:
- Patients with +ΔSI were older and exhibited higher injury severity scores, longer HLOS, and ILOS.
- The +ΔSI group showed significantly higher mortality rates (6.8% vs. 3.6%, P < 0.001) and increased blood transfusion needs (14.5% vs. 9.7%, P < 0.001).
- Multivariable logistic regression confirmed +ΔSI as a significant predictor of early mortality (OR 2.061, P = 0.008) and in-hospital death (OR 1.465, P = 0.002).
Conclusions:
- Positive ΔSI is strongly associated with negative patient outcomes, including increased early and overall mortality in rural trauma patients.
- ΔSI demonstrates significant predictive value for patient outcomes within a rural healthcare environment.
- Dynamic hemodynamic assessment using ΔSI can aid in risk stratification and management of trauma patients in rural settings.
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