Identifying late Pleistocene and Holocene refugia for baboons

Area of Science:

• Ecology and evolutionary biology
• Paleoclimatology
• Bioinformatics

Background:

• Climate change significantly alters species distribution, with refugia being crucial for survival during environmental perturbations.
• Biodiversity research in Africa has largely focused on forest refugia, overlooking savannah species.
• Understanding refugia is vital for conserving species facing climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify potential baboon (genus Papio) refugia across Africa and Arabia.
• To investigate how past climate change, including glacial-interglacial cycles, influenced baboon distribution.
• To assess the role of orbital forcing in shaping baboon habitable ranges.

Main Methods:

• Compiled a comprehensive dataset of baboon occurrence records.
• Utilized species distribution model ensembles to predict current and past habitable ranges.
• Hindcasted models using paleoclimate reconstructions from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene at 1,000-year intervals.

Main Results:

• Identified a mosaic of baboon refugia in the eastern African Rift Valley, southern/south-western Africa, western Africa, and Arabia.
• Orbital precession and obliquity influence baboon range dynamics within 100,000-year eccentricity cycles.
• Predicted habitable ranges varied significantly across glacial-interglacial cycles.

Conclusions:

• Savannah refugia are present in Africa and Arabia, challenging the focus on forest-only refugia.
• Long-term climate cycles, not just peak glacial/interglacial periods, are essential for understanding refugia.
• This research provides critical insights for baboon conservation under future climate change scenarios.