The psychological link between decisions and communicative behavior based on verbal probabilities

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Decision Science
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Verbal probability expressions carry directionality (positive or negative).
• Previous research indicates directionality influences decision-making.
• Communicative context shapes the choice of positive versus negative expressions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To clarify the relationship between decisions and communicative behavior using verbal probabilities.
• To propose and test a quantitative model explaining these phenomena.

Main Methods:

• Developed the Decision by Belief Sampling (DbBS) model, integrating Decision by Sampling and reference point hypothesis.
• Examined if the DbBS model could explain observed decisions and communicative behaviors.
• Focused on how listeners infer speaker beliefs from verbal probabilities.

Main Results:

• The DbBS model successfully explains the psychological mechanisms linking decisions and communicative behavior.
• Listeners infer speaker beliefs, which align with the speaker's actual beliefs.
• Decisions are shown to be influenced by these inferred beliefs.

Conclusions:

• The proposed model provides a unified explanation for decisions affected by probability directionality and communicative choices.
• It highlights the crucial role of inferring speaker beliefs in understanding this link.
• This research bridges the gap between how information is conveyed and how it impacts decisions.