Applying Ensemble Ecological Niche Modeling to Identify High Risk Areas for Scorpions' Sting

Area of Science:

• Medical Entomology
• Public Health
• Spatial Epidemiology

Background:

• Scorpion stings are a significant global health concern, with understudied scorpion species and their distribution contributing to sting risk.
• Limited understanding of healthcare accessibility for at-risk populations hinders effective medical treatment and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map scorpion species distribution and quantify sting risk across Iran using ecological niche models.
• To identify vulnerable populations by integrating scorpion exposure data with healthcare accessibility.
• To inform targeted public health interventions and resource allocation for scorpion sting management.

Main Methods:

• Ecological niche modeling was employed to predict the distribution of eight medically significant scorpion species.
• Geospatial analysis was used to overlay scorpion distribution with healthcare facility locations to assess population vulnerability.
• Vulnerability hotspots were identified by combining scorpion exposure and healthcare access data.

Main Results:

• The study identified specific distribution ranges for key scorpion species, with *Androctonus crassicauda* exhibiting the widest range and *Orthochirus iranus* the narrowest.
• High-risk areas for scorpion stings were concentrated in central, southern, and southwestern Iran.
• Vulnerable populations were pinpointed in regions with both high scorpion presence and limited access to healthcare.

Conclusions:

• The findings provide crucial data for public health officials to develop targeted awareness campaigns and optimize antivenom distribution.
• Mapping sting risk and vulnerability enhances the efficiency of scorpion sting mitigation strategies in Iran.
• This research highlights the importance of integrating ecological and healthcare accessibility data for effective public health planning.