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Updated: Sep 16, 2025
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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
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Humans adapt rationally to approximate estimates of uncertainty
Erdem Pulcu1, Michael Browning1,2
1Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Elife
|July 8, 2025
Summary
Humans adapt to changing volatility but not to noise when learning. Our findings suggest that imprecise noise estimation leads to inappropriate responses, misattributing noise as volatility.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive science
- Neuroscience
- Decision-making
Background:
- Effective learning hinges on distinguishing between outcome randomness (noise) and process changes (volatility).
- Previous research confirmed human adaptation to volatility but provided limited evidence for adapting to noise.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate human adaptation to varying levels of volatility and noise.
- To explore the role of choice behavior and pupillometry in measuring responses to uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Human participants completed tasks involving variable volatility and noise.
- Choice behavior and pupillometry were recorded to assess cognitive and arousal responses.
- A Bayesian observer model was employed to analyze adaptation strategies.
Main Results:
- Participants successfully adapted to changes in volatility.
- Adaptation to noise was not observed as expected.
- Analysis revealed participants estimated noise imprecisely, misinterpreting it as volatility.
Conclusions:
- Human learning systems adeptly adjust to volatility but struggle with accurate noise estimation.
- Imprecise noise estimation leads to maladaptive responses, where noise is incorrectly treated as volatility.
- Future research should focus on improving noise estimation mechanisms in learning models.
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