Impact of agricultural export duration on new market entry: evidence from China

Export duration is crucial for accumulating experience and facilitating learning. Using HS 6-digit data on Chinese agricultural exports, this paper integrates export duration and new market entry into a unified framework to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of agricultural export duration on entry into new markets.

The results suggested that export duration has an inverted U-shaped impact on new market entry. This effect varies depending on the region in which the export learning effect is acquired, the level of processing of agricultural products, and the degree of vulnerability to non-tariff barriers. The results of a mechanism test also reveal that export duration mainly affects the probability of agricultural products entering new markets through two channels: the reduction in information search costs and the growth of total factor productivity. There was evidence of a spillover effect of export duration on new market entry both at the market and product levels, which resulted in path dependence in new market entry decisions.

These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in developing countries, supporting the design of effective trade policies, the promotion of agricultural exports, and the diversification of export markets. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.