Predicting habitat suitability for an endangered medicinal plant, Saussurea medusa: insights from ensemble species
Xiang Guo1, Wei Bai2, Yihua Wang3
1Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Taiyuan, China.
Introduction:
Global climate change has profound impacts on alpine ecosystems, and with climate warming, alpine plants often face a substantial risk of habitat loss. Saussurea medusa Maxim., known for its significant medicinal value, is a typical alpine plant predominantly found in the high-altitude regions of Southwest China. However, the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of S. medusa have not been fully understood.
Methods:
We simulated ensemble species distribution models to assess the spatiotemporal habitat distribution pattern of S. medusa under different climate scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585) for the periods 2040s, 2060s, and 2070s.
Results And Discussion:
The results show that the suitable habitats, under near current condition, are mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China, covering the border regions of four provinces: Xizang, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan, with a total area of 14.06×104 km2. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of suitable habitats, particularly the highly suitable habitats, is projected to contract significantly by 80.65%, accompanied by shifts in distribution centroids towards the southwest and higher altitudes in Xizang. These results indicate that the risk of S. medusa survival due to the loss of suitable habitats would persist in the future. Among the environmental factors analyzed, elevation and three bioclimatic predictors, BIO18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), BIO12 (annual precipitation) and BIO4 (temperature seasonality), exhibit significant impacts on the potential distribution of suitable habitats for S. medusa. Our study provides an improved understanding of the potential habitat distribution dynamics of the endangered S. medusa, thereby offering a crucial reference for its conservation and sustainable management.
Related Concept Videos
Habitat Fragmentation
Multi-species Conserved Sequences
Although the genome of each species varies greatly from each other, a few sequences are highly conserved. Such conserved...
Distribution and Dispersion
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment


