Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting fall risk in frail and prefrail older adults

The objective of this study was to develop a fall risk prediction model for frail and prefrail older adults.

This study used a prospective study design in which 372 frail and prefrail older adults were selected through convenience sampling between September 2023 and February 2024. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to estimate risk factors for falls in frail and prefrail older adults, and the nomogram prediction model was developed and verified.

Impaired vision, experience of falling, lower level of independence, and poorer postural balance were risk factors for falls in frail and prefrail older adults. Using a walking aid was a protective factor. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model was 0.911.

The fall risk prediction model developed has good accuracy and provides a basis for early assessment and effective prevention of falls in frail and prefrail older adults.