Linking co-production of peat landscapes ecosystem services and human well-being under different future scenarios: A...

Degraded peatlands in Germany are undergoing significant transformations, requiring effective intervention strategies for society, climate, and nature. In this study, we assessed and modelled the co-production of ecosystem services (ES) within a peatland landscape in Northern Germany and their perceived impact on human well-being. We applied a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach based on fuzzy cognitive mapping. Farmers and land managers were invited to create mental models of the peatland system, which were then analysed and used to simulate three contrasting co-production scenarios, each reflecting different degrees of human influence on the landscape. Results underscore the vital role of natural and human-natural co-production, with regulating and supporting ES perceived as crucial. Fuzzy cognitive mapping reveals that peat landscapes extend beyond their climate mitigation and conservation value, highlighting their multifunctional character. Different land uses contribute to the co-production of cultural ES and well-being components, especially by providing basic material well-being. Simulation of intervention scenarios reveals distinct synergies and trade-offs in ES co-production and well-being. In the perception of our respondents, climate-sensitive management achieves similar ES co-production and well-being benefits as strict conservation and significantly outperforms peat-degrading intensive management. While large-scale peatland transformation is inevitable, we recommend focusing on integrated land management strategies that promote synergies and human-natural co-production of ES. Addressing global challenges like the climate crisis and biodiversity loss, while promoting cultural ES and well-being, requires a mosaic of managed areas, conserved peatlands, and less intensive use. Our findings aim to stimulate discussions on the transformative potential and stakeholder involvement in sustainable peatland management and restoration.