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Identifying temperature cues driving increased voltinism in a geometrid moth.
Jemma Guthrie1,2, Hannele M Honkanen3,4, Daniel T Haydon4
1Scottish Centre for Ecology and the Natural Environment, School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. jemma.guthrie@glasgow.ac.uk.
Oecologia
|July 9, 2025
Summary
Climate change is altering insect life cycles. A 56-year study shows the small phoenix moth now has two generations per year due to warmer temperatures, with no negative impact on population size.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Understanding environmental influences on developmental timing is crucial for predicting climate change impacts on species.
- Developmental processes are difficult to measure at population levels, leaving drivers of timing changes unknown for most species.
- Long-term monitoring data offers a valuable resource for assessing changes in generation numbers and population abundance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess changes in the number of generations per year (voltinism) using long-term monitoring data.
- To investigate the environmental cues, specifically temperature, driving shifts in voltinism.
- To evaluate the impact of voltinism changes on population size and density dependence.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 56 years (1968-2023) of light trap data for the small phoenix moth (Ecliptopera silaceata) in west-central Scotland.
- Correlation of voltinism changes with temperature data within critical developmental time windows.
- Assessment of population density dependence and its interaction with voltinism.
Main Results:
- The small phoenix moth shifted from a univoltine (one generation per year) to a bivoltine (two generations per year) pattern.
- Increased minimum temperatures during a specific period of the first generation's flight predicted the voltinism change.
- The population exhibited positive density dependence, and the shift to bivoltinism did not negatively affect population size.
Conclusions:
- Sustained temperatures above minimum thresholds are key proximate mechanisms for developmental responses to climate change, particularly in voltinism.
- The study provides evidence against a 'developmental trap' in this species, as population size remained stable despite increased generations.
- Findings contribute to predicting future population dynamics under climate change and increasing voltinism, highlighting species-specific differences.
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