Budget impact analysis of implementing a lung cancer screening in high-risk population in Spain

To analyze the cost of implementing a population-based lung cancer screening program using low-dose radiation computed tomography (CT) in a high-risk population in Spain.

A budget impact analysis (5 years) was performed from the National Health System' perspective, comparing 16 hypothetical scenarios with screening, based on different age ranges and screening frequencies (annual/biennial), with the current scenario without a lung cancer screening program. Diagnosis, treatment and follow-up costs were considered, as well as the screening costs in the hypothetical scenarios (measured in Euros 2024). From the resident population (50-80 years), the target population and the CT scanners needed to cover the program's demand were calculated. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed.

The gross budget impact was estimated at €1708.19 million for the current scenario. Among the hypothetical scenarios, it can range from €3737.17 million (biennial screening, 55-65 years) to €10 009.54 million (annual screening, 50-80 years), resulting in a net budget impact of €2028.98-€8301.35 million. By acquiring 100% of the necessary scanners, the investment reached approximately 22% of the annual program's own costs in the first year. The net impact could be reduced to €1858-€7519 million, for 0% acquisition.

Implementing a lung cancer screening program would generate a high cost for the Spanish National Health System, amounting more than one billion Euros compared to the scenario without screening.