Programmatic mapping and size estimation of people who inject drugs to plan targeted HIV prevention and harm...

The HIV epidemic in Iran has been largely driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). Although harm reduction services have been implemented in Iran, some PWID still lack access to these services. This programmatic mapping aimed to determine the spatial distribution of hotspots, estimate the number of PWID, and assess the coverage of prevention services to plan optimal service locations in Iran.

A cross-sectional key informant-driven mapping and enumeration methodology was used to identify hotspots of illicit drug use in 82 cities across 24 provinces in Iran from August 2020 to March 2021.

We identified 4,270 active hotspots, of which 3,350 (78.5%) were associated with people who inject drugs (PWID). An estimated 14,737 PWID (92.2% male) were identified, with 261 (1.8%) under 18 years old, 3,643 (24.7%) aged 18-29 years, 10,061 (68.3%) aged 30-59 years, and 775 (5.2%) over 60 years old. Only half of the hotspots for PWID have active programs, with 24% of services overlapping in coverage areas. Under resource limitation with 47% and 93% reduction in the centers and outreach teams, respectively, we can expect just a 14% decline in services, and this would be the optimum decision in the constrained situation.

This study provides conclusive evidence that the current spatial distribution of harm reduction services for PWID in Iran is inefficient, characterized by significant coverage gaps in high-risk areas alongside costly resource redundancy through service overlap. Strategic consolidation based on spatial optimization can dramatically improve efficiency and access under resource constraints.