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Rising temperatures contribute to West Nile virus diversification and increased transmission potential
Rachel L Fay1,2,3, Mauricio Cruz-Loya4, Joseph G Maffei5
1Department of Biomedical Sciences, University at Albany College of Integrated Health Sciences, Rensselaer, NY, USA. rachellfay@gmail.com.
Scientific Reports
|July 11, 2025
Summary
Climate warming is driving West Nile virus (WNV) evolution. Contemporary WNV strains show increased transmission potential at higher temperatures, suggesting adaptation to warmer climates.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Virology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne illness in the continental U.S., endemic in New York State (NYS) since 1999.
- Rising temperatures in NYS correlate with increased WNV transmission, posing a public health concern.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if rising temperatures influence WNV diversification and adaptation.
- To determine if contemporary WNV strains have a higher transmission potential at elevated temperatures compared to historic strains.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of WNV surveillance and sequencing data from NYS mosquitoes.
- Comparison of WNV strains from warm (2017-2018) and cool (2003-2004) summers.
- Assessment of Culex pipiens dissemination efficiency and calculation of relative R₀ at different temperatures.
Main Results:
- A significant correlation was found between rising temperatures, increased WNV genetic diversity, and higher prevalence.
- Contemporary WNV strains demonstrated a higher transmission potential at increased temperatures (20°C, 24°C, 28°C).
- Contemporary WNV strains exhibit greater phenotypic and genotypic diversity.
Conclusions:
- Climate warming and viral adaptation may be driving the emergence of WNV strains with enhanced transmission potential.
- WNV adaptation to warmer temperatures could lead to increased transmission risk in endemic regions.
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