Change in elevation predicts 100 km ultra marathon performance

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Human Physiology
• Biomechanical Engineering

Background:

• The 100-km ultra-marathon is a popular endurance event, yet scientific understanding of how race course characteristics influence performance is limited.
• Previous research has not comprehensively analyzed the impact of geographical and course-specific factors on 100-km ultra-marathon race times.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the locations of the fastest 100-km races and the origins of elite runners.
• To evaluate the influence of specific race characteristics, such as elevation and course type, on ultra-marathon performance.
• To assess the relative importance of individual athlete performance compared to external race factors.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 858,544 race records from 317,312 unique runners across 2,648 100-km races worldwide (1892-2022).
• Utilized descriptive, inferential, and predictive statistical methods, including a machine learning XGBoost Regression model.
• Employed a Mixed Effects Linear model to determine the relative effect of individual athlete performance.

Main Results:

• Elevation was the most significant factor influencing average running speed (0.85), followed by the race country (0.07), gender, age group, runner's country of origin, and course characteristics (all 0.02).
• Track running (9.32 km/h) was fastest, followed by road (8.11 km/h), trail (6.21 km/h), and mountain (5.74 km/h). Flat courses (8.85 km/h) were faster than hilly ones (6.57 km/h).
• Fastest runners originated from African and Eastern European countries; fastest races were in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, often being indoor or championship events.

Conclusions:

• Elevation is the paramount factor in 100-km ultra-marathon performance, outweighing other variables like race location and athlete demographics.
• Course type critically affects speed, with track and flat terrain offering significant advantages over trail, mountain, or hilly conditions.
• Geographical factors, particularly the concentration of fast races and runners in specific regions, highlight the interplay between environment and elite endurance performance.