Environmental Change and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission Risk on the China-Russia Border

The potential risk of rodent-borne diseases along the China-Russia border necessitates the identification and prediction of rodent distribution from a risk management perspective. In this study, we compile distribution records for Apodemus agrarius, which is the main host of hantavirus responsible for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), along the border between China and Russia from various literature sources. We then employ the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to assess the influence of climatic and geographic factors on its potential distribution and to predict its current and future habitats. The results show that the current suitable habitats are mainly located in the northeastern part of Heilongjiang Province bordering Russia, showing similar pattern with HFRS incidence rate. The environmental factors that contribute more to the distribution of A. agrarius included temperature, precipitation, elevation, and landscape features of cropland and forest. By 2050, due to changes in climate and land use, the suitable habitat of A. agrarius is expected to shift northeastward, thereby altering the distribution of HFRS risk. Despite anticipated shifts in host habitat, HFRS risk along the China-Russia border will remain high. Therefore, joint prevention and control measures and targeted protective strategies for at-risk populations should be developed.