Proposal of a Risk Stratification Model for Recurrence After Excisional Treatment of High-Grade Cervical...

Background/Objectives: Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) is a significant risk factor for the development of invasive cancer, and the histological detection of High-Grade CIN (CIN2+) during screening generally indicates the need for surgical removal of the lesion; cervical conization is the current gold standard of treatment. The recurrence risk for disease is reported to be up to 30%, based on data in the literature. Follow-up protocols mainly rely on High-Risk Human Papillomavirus (hrHPV) detection at six months post-treatment; if negative, this is considered the test of cure. This approach assumes that all patients have an equal risk of disease recurrence, regardless of individual characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the individual recurrence risk using a mathematical model, analyzing the weight of various parameters and their associations in terms of recurrence development. Methods: We retrospectively examined 428 patients treated for CIN2+ at San Raffaele Hospital in Milan between January 2010 and April 2019. Clinical and pathological data were recorded and correlated with disease recurrence; three different variables, known to behave as significant prognostic factors, were analyzed: hrHPV persistence, the surgical margin status, Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), along with their relative associations. Data were used to engineer a mathematical model for the identification of different risk classes, allowing for the risk stratification of cases. Results: Surgical margins status, hrHPV persistence, and a high NLR index were demonstrated to act as independent and significant risk factors for disease recurrence, and their different associations significantly correlated with different recurrence rates. The mathematical model identified eight classes of recurrence probability, with Odds Ratios (ORs) ranging from 7.48% to 69.4%. Conclusions: The developed mathematical model may allow risk stratification for recurrence in a hierarchical fashion, potentially supporting the tailored management of follow-up, and improving the current protocols. This study represents the first attempt to integrate these factors into a mathematical model for post-treatment risk stratification.