Pollen Quantitative and Genetic Competitiveness of Rice (Oryza sativa L.) and Their Effects on Gene Flow

The gene flow rate in rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a critical factor for establishing safe isolation distances between genetically modified (GM) and non-GM varieties and for ensuring varietal purity in rice breeding programs. This study refines existing gene flow models by disentangling two key components of rice pollen dynamics: quantitative pollen competition and genetic competitiveness. We define B as the proportion of GM pollen within mixed pollen, representing quantitative pollen competitiveness. The outcrossing parameter C_b reflects the likelihood of successful fertilization and seed development by foreign pollen, while the hybrid compatibility parameter C_p captures the relative fertilization success of GM versus non-GM pollen within the same pollen pool. Together, C_b and C_p characterize the genetic competitiveness of rice pollen. Our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between B and the observed GM pollen rate G, which may exhibit either upward or downward curvature. A nonlinear model provides a significantly better fit to this relationship than a linear model, improving R² by 4.1-21.4% and reducing RMSE by 9.9-47.8%. The parameters C_b and C_p play central roles in determining gene flow; higher values correspond to stronger GM pollen competitiveness, resulting in higher gene flow rates and greater dispersal distances. Specifically, C_b sets the range of the B-G curve, while C_p determines its curvature.