Pedestrian crash causation analysis near bus stops: Insights from random parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley model

Area of Science:

• Transportation Engineering
• Urban Planning
• Public Health

Background:

• Pedestrian safety near urban bus stops is understudied, often overlooked in favor of intersections.
• Existing research inadequately addresses how specific bus stop designs and traffic interact to affect pedestrian safety.
• A critical gap exists in understanding site-specific factors influencing pedestrian crash risks around transit stops.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a comprehensive framework for assessing pedestrian safety specifically at urban bus stop locations.
• To identify key traffic, roadway, and bus stop design features impacting pedestrian crash frequency.
• To provide data-driven insights for proactive safety management and risk prioritization.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley (RPNB-L) model to analyze pedestrian crash data from 596 bus stops in Fort Worth, Texas (2018-2022).
• Incorporated a Full Bayes-based Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) metric for identifying hazardous locations and corridors.
• Accounted for unobserved heterogeneity and site-specific variability in crash risk factors.

Main Results:

• Increased Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT), high boarding activity, and lack of crosswalks, medians, or lighting significantly correlate with higher pedestrian crash frequencies.
• Far-side bus stop placement, signalized intersections, sidewalks, and mixed-use developments are associated with reduced crash risks.
• Roads near schools and speed limits of 35 mph or less exhibit elevated pedestrian crash risks.

Conclusions:

• Bus stop location, surrounding development, and presence of safety infrastructure are critical determinants of pedestrian safety.
• The RPNB-L model and PSI metric offer effective tools for identifying high-risk bus stops and prioritizing safety interventions.
• Actionable, evidence-based strategies can be developed to enhance pedestrian safety in the vicinity of urban transit stops.