Sustainable aviation fuel and next-generation aircraft: Low-carbon pathway for China's civil aviation industry

In the 21st century, the burgeoning demand in China's civil aviation industry elicits a salient increase in jet fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. At the same time, the dual carbon target proposed by China requires a decarbonized development pathway for China's civil aviation industry. The future carbon reduction pathways for China's civil aviation industry have not yet been thoroughly analyzed. This study concentrates on the low-carbon development pathways of China's civil aviation industry and considers twenty-nine different aircraft types (comprising passenger and cargo aircraft) currently exploited in China. An emission reduction strategy combining next-generation aircraft and the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) indeed inspires us to establish a bottom-up optimization model. Such a model concerns both economics and technology, which digests the future energy-saving and emission-reduction. Put explicitly, with joint counter-measures, the analysis relying on the model documents that China's civil aviation sector will attenuate the consumption of jet fuel by 284.75 Mt and CO₂ emissions by 740.34 Mt during 2022-2060. The CO₂ emissions from the aviation industry will reach a peak of 129.81 Mt in 2046. Differing from SAF, energy-efficient aircraft gives rise to a more cost-effective solution for the CO₂ reduction.