Ecological security patterns for coordinating development in frozen soil regions - construction framework by coupling climate change and development objectives

Ecosystems are facing serious degradation issues due to global warming and human activities. Construction of ecological security patterns (ESPs) has become an essential means to protect ecosystems. However, previous studies focus on a single indicator and lack coordinated assessment. This study integrates the MCCA, MOP, InVEST, and MCR models to propose a framework for constructing coordinated ESPs in frozen soil regions and applies it in Heilongjiang Province. Results indicate that: (1) By 2035, land use will stabilize with cropland and woodland maintaining a 93 % share, primarily changing in the Xing'an Range. (2) Ecosystem service values remain the "low-high-low" distribution with minimal changes in carbon storage, habitat quality, and crop production across all scenarios, while water yield and soil conservation change drastically only under the Economic Priority Development (EPD) scenario. (3) The EPD scenario reveals the broadest ecological sources (3.9 × 10⁴ km²) and corridors (8746.7 km), though source fragmentation may pose risks in the future. The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario reveals the smallest ecological sources (2.2 × 10⁴ km²) and longest ecological corridors (9449.3 km), which are inadequate to ensure ecological security. The Frozen Soil Protection (FSP) scenario indicates the most optimal ecological sources (3.2 × 10⁴ km²) and corridors (8791.9 km), which can most effectively ensure ecological security. Combining the results, the "one ring, three corridors, and four cores" pattern is proposed. This paper has important reference value for optimizing ESPs in Heilongjiang Province and provides a framework of ESP for coordinating development in frozen soil regions.