Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions of the EU tourism sector

This study examines the evolution of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the tourism sector across the European Union (EU27) over the period 2008-2022, using an integrated approach based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Tapio decoupling analysis. The novelty of this research lies in the introduction of six tourism-specific indicators-Carbon Intensity (CI), Carbon Structure (CS), Average Revenue per Tourist (ART), Tourism Spread Ratio (TSR), Tourism Pressure Index (TPI), and Number of Hospitality Structures (NHS)-to decompose the drivers of CO₂ emissions and assess their dynamic interaction with tourism growth. Empirical findings indicate that CI and ART were the primary contributors to emissions reductions accounting for -6.5 Mt. and - 3.9 Mt. respectively, consistent with previous evidence on structural and technological improvements. However, emissions were increasingly influenced by spatial concentration and infrastructure growth, as captured by NHS (+3.9 Mt) and TSR (+1.6 Mt). The Tapio analysis reveals heterogeneous decoupling trajectories among member states in the period 2008-2022, with strong decoupling observed in countries such as France, Portugal, and Sweden, while others experienced coupling or negative decoupling patterns. Overall, a recessive decoupling, index equal to 1.052, is estimated for EU in the period 2008-2022. These results underscore the need for integrated mitigation strategies that combine technological innovation, spatial planning, and sustainable infrastructure development. The study contributes to the energy-tourism policy interface by offering a replicable framework for monitoring decarbonization progress in tourism-intensive economies.