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Temperature-related hospitalization burden under climate change
Shujie Liao1,2,3, Wei Pan4, Li Wen5
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China. liaosjmailbox@126.com.
Nature
|July 16, 2025
Summary
Climate change significantly impacts health, with extreme temperatures causing millions of excess hospitalizations by 2100. Targeted strategies are crucial to mitigate these climate-sensitive disease risks and economic burdens.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Climate Change Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Climate change exacerbates human health issues and economic growth.
- Limited research has quantified city-level impacts of extreme temperatures and future health implications under various climate scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical and project future hospitalization risks from extreme temperatures across Chinese cities.
- To develop an economic index to assess the hospitalization burden under different carbon emission scenarios.
- To evaluate spatial, disease-specific, age-group, and temporal dimensions of climate-related health risks.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical data on climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) and hospitalizations in 301 Chinese cities.
- Employed a nonlinear distributed lag model to assess temperature-disease relationships.
- Projected hospitalization risks to 2100 under low, middle, and high carbon emission scenarios.
Main Results:
- Historical data revealed higher temperature-related CSD risks in northwestern and southwestern China.
- Gestation-related diseases showed particular vulnerability to extreme heat in certain regions.
- Excess hospitalizations are projected to reach 0.6, 3.8, and 5.1 million by 2100 under low, middle, and high emission scenarios, respectively, without adaptation.
Conclusions:
- Extreme heat poses a significant future threat to human health and economic stability in China.
- Mitigation strategies must be tailored to city-specific geography, temperature variations, population demographics, and emission pathways.
- Addressing climate-related health disparities and economic burdens requires proactive, localized adaptation and mitigation efforts.
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