The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050

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Bryan Chong1, Jayanth Jayabaskaran1, Silingga Metta Jauhari2

  • 1Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore.

Journal of the American College of Cardiology
|July 16, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors like high blood pressure and BMI will see declining age-standardized rates but rising crude burden by 2050. This trend is driven by population growth and aging, despite improved management.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Global Health

Background:

  • Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) represent the primary cause of mortality worldwide.
  • Understanding epidemiological trends in modifiable risk factors is crucial for developing effective CVD countermeasures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To forecast geospatial trends of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050.
  • Key risk factors include high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index (BMI), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized historical data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
  • Forecasted the burden associated with modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050.
  • Examined trends across GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups.

Main Results:

  • In 2050, high SBP is projected to contribute the highest age-standardized DALYs (1,694.2 per 100,000 population).
  • High low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high BMI, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose follow.
  • While age-standardized DALY rates will decrease, crude DALYs are projected to rise, with high SBP and high BMI showing the greatest increases.

Conclusions:

  • Projected declines in age-standardized DALYs suggest improved CVD management.
  • However, overall crude DALYs for cardiovascular risk factors are expected to increase due to population growth and aging.
  • This highlights the ongoing challenge of managing CVD burden globally.
Abstract

Keywords:
cardiovascular diseasedisability-adjusted life yearsglobal burdenstandard modifiable risk factors

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