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Estimating Avertable Deaths Based on Comparisons With Healthier Racial and Ethnic Populations 2001-2023
Steven H Woolf1, Derek A Chapman2
1Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond, Virginia.
American Journal of Preventive Medicine
|July 17, 2025
Summary
Millions of deaths are avertable due to racial-ethnic mortality disparities in the U.S. This study reveals increasing avertable death rates since 2010, particularly for men, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Health Disparities Research
Background:
- Previous studies on mortality disparities focused on the Black-White gap.
- This research broadens the scope to include multiple racial-ethnic groups and reference populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate avertable deaths across diverse U.S. racial-ethnic populations.
- To analyze temporal, sex-specific, and state-level trends in mortality disparities.
Main Methods:
- Utilized mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2001-2023.
- Calculated avertable deaths using direct standardization against multiple lower-mortality reference groups.
- Examined age-adjusted avertable death rates by time, sex, and state.
Main Results:
- Between 2001-2023, avertable deaths ranged from 1.7-4.5 million (non-Hispanic Black), 12.3-21.5 million (non-Hispanic White), and 1.2 million (Hispanic), varying by reference population.
- Avertable death rates declined initially but rose post-2010/2013, with a significant surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in men.
- Highest avertable death rates were geographically concentrated: Midwest (non-Hispanic Black), South (non-Hispanic White), and Southwest (Hispanic).
Conclusions:
- Racial-ethnic mortality disparities represent a substantial public health burden affecting multiple U.S. populations.
- Employing diverse reference populations offers novel perspectives on avertable deaths.
- Addressing these disparities necessitates tackling root causes and the socioecologic context of health.
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