Evolving infectious disease dynamics shape school-based intervention effectiveness
Javier Perez-Saez1,2,3, Mathilde Bellon4,5, Justin Lessler6,7,8
1Unit of Population Epidemiology, Department of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland. javier.perez@hug.ch.
Nature Communications
|July 17, 2025
Summary
School interventions effectiveness varies with community transmission levels and viral variants. Adapting school policies to the evolving epidemic context is crucial for pandemic preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- School-based interventions during epidemics, like COVID-19, face controversy due to balancing transmission reduction with child welfare.
- The influence of the broader epidemiological context on intervention effectiveness remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how community transmission dynamics and viral evolution affect school-based intervention efficacy.
- To inform adaptive strategies for school policies in infectious disease control.
Main Methods:
- Integrated modeling of epidemiological and genetic data from a longitudinal school surveillance study (SARS-CoV-2, 2021-2022).
- Scenario simulations to assess intervention impact under varying transmission conditions.
Main Results:
- School transmission dynamics were significantly impacted by rising community infections from successive viral variants.
- The effectiveness of school-based interventions in reducing infection rates diminished as community transmission increased.
- Epidemiological context, including pathogen evolution and public behavior, reshaped intervention impact.
Conclusions:
- A dynamic approach to school-based infectious disease control is essential.
- Policies must adapt to the evolving epidemiological landscape, considering pathogen characteristics and societal changes.
- Effective pandemic preparedness requires flexible school intervention strategies.
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