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Food choices and body weight changes: A mathematical model analysis.

Mantana Chudtong1,2, Andrea De Gaetano1,3,4

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|July 18, 2025
PubMed
Summary

This study models food intake to predict long-term body weight changes. Dietary choices and appetite control significantly impact weight and metabolic health, potentially influencing Type 2 diabetes development.

Keywords:
body weightenergy expenditurefood intakeglycemiainsulin resistancemathematical modelingmetabolismobesityordinary differential equations

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Area of Science:

  • * Computational Biology
  • * Mathematical Modeling
  • * Nutritional Science

Background:

  • * Understanding the complex interplay between food intake, metabolic responses, and body weight regulation is crucial.
  • * Existing models often lack the granularity to capture minute-by-minute physiological dynamics and long-term consequences.
  • * Lifestyle factors, including dietary composition and appetite regulation, are implicated in the development of metabolic diseases like Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Purpose of the Study:

  • * To develop a short-term stochastic model of food intake that integrates appetite, insulinemia, and glycemia.
  • * To extend the model for long-term simulations (several years) to explore the impact of dietary choices and appetite suppression on body weight.
  • * To investigate how minute-by-minute eating behaviors influence long-term metabolic compensation, insulin sensitivity, glycemic variability, and body size.

Main Methods:

  • * Formulation of a stochastic model simulating minute-by-minute food intake.
  • * Incorporation of key physiological variables: appetite, insulinemia, and glycemia.
  • * Simulation over extended periods (years) under varying dietary scenarios (high-fiber vs. high-carbohydrate) and appetite modulation.

Main Results:

  • * The model predicts coherent long-term body weight changes (increments or decrements) resulting from short-term appetite alterations.
  • * Food type significantly influences long-term body weight trajectories, even with consistent appetite and meal size.
  • * The model links individual eating patterns to macroscopic changes in metabolic health and body size over time.

Conclusions:

  • * Short-term eating behaviors and food choices have profound long-term effects on body weight and metabolic health.
  • * The model provides a framework for understanding the development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus linked to lifestyle factors.
  • * This approach bridges the gap between immediate physiological responses and chronic health outcomes.