[Spatial-temporal Patterns of Carbon Flows and Scenario Simulation in Resource-based Cities in Dry Areas]

A study on carbon storage and emission in dryland resource cities under land use change was carried out to provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in dryland resource cities. Taking Shizuishan City， a resource city in the dry zone， as an example， we integrated multi-source data such as station observation， sample testing， remote sensing monitoring， and statistical data. Furthermore， we coupled the InVEST and PLUS-Markov models to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use patterns， carbon emission， carbon storage， and carbon flow in Shizuishan City under the four scenarios of natural development， arable land protection， ecological protection， and economic development in the past 15 years and the future and to identify the driving factors of carbon flow using geoprobes. The results showed that： ① From 2005 to 2020， the change in land use in Shizuishan City caused an increase in carbon emissions， a decrease in carbon stock， and a negative net carbon flow， and changes in carbon emissions， carbon stock， and carbon flow were similar to the spatial characteristics of land use. ② From 2005 to 2035， the net carbon flow under the four scenarios in Shizuishan City was negative， and the ecological protection scenario was more obvious in suppressing the decline of net carbon flow. ③ Slope， DEM， distance to the road， mean annual temperature， and mean annual precipitation were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of carbon flow， and the interactions between mean annual temperature and slope as well as slope and DEM were significant. The results of the study provide a reference for the green and low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of resource cities in the "several bends" of the Yellow River and provide scientific support for the construction of low-carbon cities in resource areas in dry zones.