[Estimation of Carbon Storage and Economic Value of Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base Based on InVEST and CA-Markov...

Based on the background of "dual-carbon，" we explore the relationship between land use patterns and carbon stock changes in national energy and chemical bases and estimate and predict the carbon stock and sink value to provide important references for improving the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems in the industrial field to reaching the goal of "dual-carbon." The Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base is an important support for the industry in Northwest China， and in the context of promoting green transformation in the industrial field， this industrial base is the key to realizing carbon emission reduction scientifically and accurately. Taking theNingdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base， a national-level energy base， as the study area， the InVEST model and CA-Markov model are applied to predict and evaluate the characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in carbon stock changes in industrial bases under different scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the construction land of the Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base was characterized by a continuous and substantial increase， forest land increased and then decreased， and unutilized land increased and then decreased substantially. ② Carbon stock from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing， with an increase of 2.58×10⁵ t and a spatial distribution of gradual increase from the north and south to the center， and the low value of carbon stock was distributed in the north and south of the study area， corresponding to the urban development and industrial base. From 2020 to 2030， the carbon stock in the scenario of natural development and eco-protection decreased by 4.66×10⁵ t and 1.92×10⁵ t， respectively， Compared with that of the scenario of natural development， the carbon stock of the ecological protection scenario decreased by 4.66×10⁵ t and 1.92×10⁵ t， respectively. Compared with those under the natural development scenario， the eco-protection scenario restricted the expansion of construction land， increased the water area， and had a significant ecological effect. ③ The two scenarios from 2020 to 2030 increased the economic value of carbon sinks by 1 958 500 and 3 317 900 U.S. dollars， respectively. The conversion of grassland， unutilized land， and construction land due to base construction was an important factor that caused drastic changes in the regional carbon stock. The study provides a universal model for carbon stock estimation in industrial parks in Northwest China， and the conclusions can provide theoretical support for ecological regulation of industrial bases and carbon trading situations.