Sweet dreams? Testing prognostics and reinterpreting sugarcane ethanol biofuel in Brazil

Area of Science:

• Science and Technology Studies
• Socio-technical innovation analysis
• Biofuel policy and development

Background:

• Sugarcane ethanol biofuel in Brazil is a significant socio-technical innovation.
• Retrospective assessment of innovation trajectories is crucial for learning and improving analytical frameworks.
• Existing research rarely revisits anticipated changes in Science and Technology Studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present and test a framework for analyzing socio-technical innovations and power/knowledge trajectories in sugarcane ethanol biofuel.
• To evaluate the utility of retrospective analysis in Science and Technology Studies.
• To analyze the discourse of a responsible research and innovation (RRI) perspective within the Brazilian context.

Main Methods:

• Development of a framework for analyzing socio-technical innovations.
• Retrospective assessment of prognostics against factual evidence.
• Discourse analysis of responsible research and innovation (RRI) perspectives.

Main Results:

• The framework proved valuable for analyzing socio-technical innovations in sugarcane ethanol biofuel.
• Prognostics made in a 2014/2015 study were validated against recent factual evidence.
• Specific trends within Brazil's responsible research and innovation discourse were confirmed.

Conclusions:

• Retrospective assessment enhances learning and improves engaged analysis of socio-technical innovations.
• The presented framework offers a robust method for understanding power/knowledge trajectories in biofuel development.
• The study highlights the importance of revisiting and validating S&T studies' predictions.