How Plans Prepare for Future Uncertainty: Integrating Land Change Modeling and the Plan Integration for Resilience...

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Urban planning
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Coastal communities face increasing risks from urban growth and flood hazards.
• Assessing preparedness requires integrating urban development models with resilience frameworks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate coastal community preparedness for future urban growth and flood hazards using integrated modeling.
• To assess the effectiveness of current planning strategies under various climate and growth scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Integration of Land Change Modeling (LCM) with the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard (PIRSC) methodology.
• Scenario analysis of urban growth under static and changing climate conditions.

Main Results:

• Tampa's current plans are adequate for urban growth under static climate conditions.
• Climate change scenarios reveal vulnerabilities, indicating a need for more resilient growth than current land use plans allow.
• Some existing policies may exacerbate flood vulnerability in a future with increased flooding.

Conclusions:

• Resilient growth strategies are crucial for coastal communities adapting to climate change and urban expansion.
• Current land use plans may be insufficient to address future flood risks exacerbated by climate change.
• Policy evaluation and adaptation are necessary to avoid counterproductive outcomes in vulnerable coastal areas.