A Quantitative Imaging Measure of Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis

Rationale: Progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) is common in patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) and leads to high mortality. Although PPF guideline criteria include computed tomography (CT)-based progression, these measures are qualitative and prone to interreader variability. Quantitative computed tomography (qCT) measurements have the potential to overcome this limitation. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to determine whether changes in qCT measures of pulmonary fibrosis are associated with transplant-free survival (TFS) in a diverse ILD cohort and establish a quantitative computed tomography measure of progressive pulmonary fibrosis (qctPPF). Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was performed in individuals with fibrotic ILD, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 350), who underwent serial chest CT for clinical indications. Commercially available software was used to generate qCT measures of pulmonary fibrosis, which were tested for association with 2-year TFS using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Iterative modeling was then performed to develop a composite qctPPF measure. Results were validated in an independent ILD cohort (n = 92). Measurements and Main Results: Increasing ground-glass opacity and decreasing lung volume showed consistent association with decreased TFS across cohorts when modeled continuously and dichotomously. qctPPF classification was associated with a greater than threefold increased hazard of death or transplant in the test (hazard ratio, 4.41; 95% confidence interval, 2.77-7.03) and validation (hazard ratio, 3.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.62-7.71) cohorts. Agreement between qctPPF and radiologist-determined PPF was poor (κ = 0.20), with qctPPF classification maintaining prognostic significance when discordant with radiologist interpretation. Conclusions: Changes in qCT measures are associated with clinically relevant outcomes and could improve PPF classification.