Technological risks disrupting trade stability in the global lithium supply chain network

Area of Science:

• Supply Chain Management
• International Trade
• Technology Policy

Background:

• Global attention on technological risks in the lithium supply chain is high.
• Limited research exists on the impact of these risks on trade stability and technological mitigation.
• Understanding the interplay of technological and trade risks is crucial for supply chain resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the interplay of technological and trade risks within the lithium supply chain.
• To incorporate technology dependency and supply chain management theories.
• To explore how technological progress influences risk diffusion and trade stability.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of technological risk diffusion patterns.
• Simulation of risk diffusion scenarios.
• Application of technology dependency and supply chain management theories.

Main Results:

• The U.S. holds a significant majority (56-79%) of core lithium technologies, while China holds 6-25%.
• This technological concentration creates risks of barriers and embargoes, potentially causing large-scale trade risk diffusion.
• Global losses are estimated at $90.0 billion, with China potentially mitigating downstream losses by $5.2 billion due to its tech advantages.

Conclusions:

• Technological monopolies pose substantial risks to lithium supply chain stability and global trade.
• Understanding risk transmission mechanisms is key to enhancing supply chain sustainability.
• Technological advantages can influence downstream loss mitigation in global supply chains.