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Published on: October 13, 2018
Youth's Political Identity and Fertility Desires
Heather M Rackin1, Christina M Gibson-Davis2
1Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, 126 Stubbs Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70803.
Political identity increasingly influences young adults' fertility desires. Republicans consistently desired more children than Democrats, with this gap widening over three decades, highlighting the growing importance of political affiliation in family planning.
Area of Science:
- Sociology of family
- Political science
- Demography
Background:
- Fertility preferences are crucial mediators between societal influences and actual fertility rates.
- Political identity is a theorized yet under-examined factor influencing fertility desires.
- The rising prominence of political identity suggests a strengthening link with fertility intentions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between political identity and fertility desires among young adults.
- To analyze how this association has evolved between 1989 and 2019.
- To explore the role of mediating factors like religiosity and gender/childbearing attitudes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 1989-2019 Monitoring the Future survey, a nationally representative study of 12th graders (N=67,557).
- Employed regression models to assess the predictive relationship between political identity (Republican vs. Democrat) and desired number of children.
- Examined desired fertility both continuously and categorically.
Main Results:
- Republicans consistently desired more children than Democrats across the study period, with the gap increasing from 0.07 (1989-1993) to 0.29 (2014-2019).
- Religiosity and attitudes toward gender/childbearing explained partisan differences in fertility desires before 2004.
- Post-2004, these factors partially explained but did not eliminate the Republican-Democrat gap in desired fertility; Republicans showed higher probabilities for desiring four or more children and lower probabilities for forgoing parenthood in later periods.
Conclusions:
- Political identity has become a more significant factor in shaping fertility desires among young adults.
- The findings suggest that political affiliation may increasingly influence fertility intentions and subsequent reproductive behaviors.
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