Global burden of liver cancer attributable to drug use: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040

  • 0Department of Interventional and Vascular Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, China.

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Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Drug use significantly increases liver cancer (LC) deaths globally, with higher rates in women and high Socio-Demographic Index regions. Projections show a decline by 2040, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Area Of Science

  • Global Health
  • Oncology
  • Epidemiology

Background

  • Liver cancer (LC) represents a substantial global health challenge, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprising the majority of cases.
  • Drug use, encompassing both legal and illicit substances, is an underrecognized yet significant risk factor for LC, contributing to viral hepatitis, direct liver toxicity, and metabolic issues.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To analyze global and regional trends in drug-induced liver cancer (LC) mortality and disease burden from 1990 to 2021.
  • To project future trends in drug-induced LC burden up to 2040 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

Main Methods

  • Analysis of age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the GBD 2021 database.
  • Utilized estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess trends and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model for future burden projections.
  • Conducted subgroup analyses by sex, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to identify specific patterns.

Main Results

  • Global deaths from drug-induced LC quadrupled between 1990 and 2021, with ASDR increasing from 0.32 to 0.83 per 100,000 (EAPC=1.81) and DALYs rising from 9.60 to 20.42 per 100,000 (EAPC=1.22).
  • Women showed higher relative increases in ASDR (2.36) and DALYs (1.87) compared to men.
  • High SDI regions experienced the most significant increases in ASDR and DALYs, while low SDI regions demonstrated slower but consistent growth. Projections indicate a plateau before 2030 and a subsequent decline by 2040.

Conclusions

  • The global burden of drug-induced liver cancer has markedly increased, with significant regional and gender-based disparities.
  • High SDI regions face the most rapid increase in disease burden, while low SDI regions are experiencing rising mortality and morbidity.
  • Urgent, targeted public health interventions are necessary for drug use and LC prevention, especially in high-risk populations and geographical areas.

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