Swedish Fertility Developments Before, During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• Affluent nations observed a temporary fertility rate increase in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• This trend reversed in 2022-2023, with rates returning to a pre-pandemic decline.
• Limited research exists on post-pandemic fertility trends, particularly group-specific analyses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze parity-specific and group-specific fertility trends in Sweden.
• To investigate fertility changes before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2022).
• To assess the lasting impact of the 2021 fertility uptick on fertility structures.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Swedish register data and event-history techniques.
• Analyzed annual birth risks for all Swedish-born women of childbearing age (2010-2022).
• Examined first- and second-birth risks (2015-2022) across socio-demographic factors.

Main Results:

• The 'pandemic pattern' of a 2021 fertility increase followed by a 2022 drop was observed.
• This pattern was prominent in subgroups with the ability to postpone births, such as mothers with young children and highly educated/high-income women.
• The pattern reflects a temporary preponement of births in 2021, leading to a subsequent shortfall in 2022.

Conclusions:

• The 2021 fertility increase was a temporary timing shift (preponement) rather than a structural change.
• Subgroups with greater flexibility in childbearing timing experienced the most pronounced pandemic fertility pattern.
• The continued fertility decline post-pandemic aligns with long-term demographic trends.