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Global burden of cervical cancer: current estimates, temporal trend and future projections based on the GLOBOCAN 2022
Jie Wu1, Qianyun Jin1, Yunmeng Zhang1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Human Major Diseases, Ministry of Education, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Background:
Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide. Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization (WHO) to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem.
Methods:
All data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) of cervical cancer were compared and linked to Human Development Index (HDI) between populations. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to characterize the temporal trend in ASIR/ASMR, and demographic estimates were projected up to 2050.
Results:
Globally, an estimated 662,044 cases (ASIR: 14.12/100,000) and 348,709 deaths (ASMR: 7.08/100,000) from cervical cancer occurred in 2022, corresponding to the fourth cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in women worldwide. Specifically, 42 % of cases and 39 % of deaths occurred in China (23 % and 16 %) and India (19 % and 23 %). Both ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer decreased with HDI, and similar decreasing links were observed for both early-onset (0-39 years) and late-onset (≥40 years) cervical cancer. Both ASIR and ASMR of overall cervical cancer showed decreasing trends during 2003-2012 (EAPC: 0.04 % and -1.03 %); however, upward trends were observed for early-onset cervical cancer (EAPC: 1.16 % and 0.57 %). If national rates in 2022 remain stable, the estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer are projected to increase by 56.8 % and 80.7 % up to 2050. Moreover, the projected increase of early-onset cervical cancer is mainly observed in transitioning countries, while decreased burden is expected in transitioned countries.
Conclusions:
Cervical cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in many countries, especially in transitioning countries. Unless scaling-up preventive interventions, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening, as well as systematic cooperation within government, civil societies, and private enterprises, the global burden of cervical cancer would be expected to increase in the future.
Insights
Cervical cancer remains a global health challenge, with cases and deaths projected to rise significantly by 2050. Early-onset cervical cancer is increasing, particularly in transitioning countries, highlighting the urgent need for HPV vaccination and screening programs.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Cervical cancer is the only cancer with the potential for global elimination.
- Tracking the current burden of cervical cancer is crucial for achieving World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the global burden of cervical cancer in 2022.
- To examine trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality.
- To project future cervical cancer cases and deaths up to 2050.
Main Methods:
- Data extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022.
- Comparison of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR) with the Human Development Index (HDI).
- Analysis of temporal trends using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and demographic projections to 2050.
Main Results:
- In 2022, cervical cancer caused an estimated 662,044 cases and 348,709 deaths globally, ranking as the fourth leading cause of cancer in women.
- Incidence and mortality rates decreased with higher HDI, but early-onset cervical cancer showed increasing trends (EAPC: 1.16% incidence, 0.57% mortality).
- Projections indicate a 56.8% increase in cases and an 80.7% increase in deaths by 2050 if current rates persist, with a notable rise in early-onset cases in transitioning countries.
Conclusions:
- Cervical cancer remains a significant cause of cancer mortality, especially in transitioning nations.
- Without enhanced preventive measures like HPV vaccination and screening, the global burden is expected to increase.
- Systematic collaboration among governments, civil societies, and private enterprises is essential to combat the rising cervical cancer burden.
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