Global cancer burdens related to human behaviors in 1990-2044: a population-based cross-sectional and forecast study

Human behaviors and tumors go hand in hand. The wave of globalization has brought about a global homogenization of human behaviors, which further triggers a potential global human behavior-related cancer burden (HBRCB) convergence.

This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national metrics of HBRCBs over the last 30 years using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 results and the WHO Global Health Observatory (GHO) data repository.

The results showed the global remission and convergence of HBRCB in the last three decades and the foreseeable future (2020-2044). Overall, HBRCBs are decreasing with the global emphasis on positive dietary habits, safe sex, substance addiction withdrawal, and active physical exercise habits. Globally, from 1990 to 2019, with the development of social development index (SDI) level from 0.511 to 0.651, the HBRCBs had been decreasing from 1507.908 to 1145.344 in age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDALY) and from 61.467 to 49.449 in (age-standardized death rates) ASDR per 100,000 population with changes of -24.04 % and -19.55 %, respectively. Meanwhile, the variance in HBRCBs among countries and territories generally showed a decreasing or flat trend. The variance of HBRCBs among 204 countries and territories in 2019-2044 decreased from 1495.210 to 449.202 in males and from 214.640 to 78.848 in females for ASDR due to all behavior risks, and from 911,211.676 to 317,233.590 in males and from 146,171.660 to 62,926.660 in females for ASDALY. The global HBRCBs was becoming more uniform due to the globalization of human behaviors.

This study revealed the significance of addressing HBRCBs as a uniform and continuous issue in future global health promotion. It also demonstrated the potential existence of a chain effect in global health, where globalization leads to human behavior homogenization, which in turn results in HBRCB convergence. Properly measuring the commonalities and individualities among different regions and finding a balance when designing and evaluating HBRCB-related global policies in the global convergence trend of HBRCBs will be major concerns in the future.