Gridded forest carbon sinks and carbon removal projections from 2020 to 2060 in China

Clarifying the forest carbon sink in the future and detailing its offsetting effect on CO₂ emissions are of great significance to China's Dual-Carbon strategy. This study has innovatively developed a comprehensive analysis to simultaneously consider grid-specific (10 km × 10 km), yearly, and nationwide forest carbon sink and CO₂ emissions to further explore the carbon offset effects of China's forest resources from 2020 to 2060 under scenario combinations integrated by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We find that China is projected to achieve carbon peaks around 2025, 2030, and 2040 and China's forest carbon sink is anticipated to peak around 2025 under their associated scenarios. Especially, there are vast heterogeneities in forest carbon sink and CO₂ emissions across provinces from 2020 to 2060. For instance, Shandong is one of the main CO₂ emission contributors whereas Yunnan contributes to a large proportion of forest carbon sinks. Furthermore, the offsetting ratio of forest carbon sinks to CO₂ emissions exhibits an optimistic overall growth trend, ranging from 4.43 % to 62.87 % between 2020 and 2060. Nevertheless, regional uneven distribution features between the CO₂ emissions and forest carbon sinks pose higher requirements for implementing efficient emission reduction measures in high-emission regions. Our results emphasize the effectiveness of forest carbon sinks on CO₂ emission offsets and the necessity of spatial differentiation policies, thereby facilitating future policymaking.