Recycling or Second Use? Supply Potentials and Climate Effects of End-of-Life Electric Vehicle Batteries

Recycling and reuse in stationary energy storage (second use) are beneficial options to further utilize electric vehicle (EV) battery materials and residual capacities after end-of-life (EoL). In California, EV sales shares have steadily increased recently, and state policies to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 will further result in a rapidly growing number of EoL EV batteries. Based on modeling material flows and climate effects, in this study, EoL EV battery supply scenarios and the effect of recycling and second use on battery demand and saved greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are investigated on a regional level in California until 2050. The results indicate that stationary energy storage demands can be met by more than 100% by 2050 through the second use of EoL EV batteries. By contrast, recycling is expected to cover around 61% of the overall EV battery demand annually by 2050. Within system boundaries, the second use scenario, where EoL EV batteries are prioritized to be further used in stationary storage applications, shows potential cumulative GHG emission savings of about 55.8 MtCO₂eq through the avoidance of battery production for stationary energy storage. Recycling of all EoL EV batteries results in GHG emission savings of about 48.3 MtCO₂eq until 2050, driven by the replacement of primary raw materials in battery production. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that adapting several model parameters, such as remanufacturing emissions, EV sales, battery lifetimes, and applied recycling processes, can have a substantial impact on the EoL EV battery supply and GHG emission savings by 2050.