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In Vitro Methods for Comparing Target Binding and CDC Induction Between Therapeutic Antibodies: Applications in Biosimilarity Analysis
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Measuring the First Mover Advantage in US Biosimilar Markets.

J Daniel McGeeney1, Aylin Sertkaya1, Samantha A McCormick2

  • 1Eastern Research Group, Inc., Concord, MA, USA.

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
|July 23, 2025
PubMed
Summary

First movers in US biosimilar markets gain a significant long-run market share advantage. This first-mover advantage, estimated between 8.9-12.0 percentage points, highlights the strategic importance of early market entry for biosimilar drugs.

Keywords:
biosimilarcompetitiondrug pricingmarket share

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Area of Science:

  • Pharmacoeconomics
  • Market analysis
  • Pharmaceutical industry trends

Background:

  • The US biosimilar market is growing, with increasing competition among drug developers.
  • Understanding market dynamics and the long-term impact of entry timing is crucial for strategic planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the median long-run, steady-state market share advantage for first movers in US biosimilar markets.
  • To quantify the difference in market share between first movers and later entrants.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized IQVIA National Sales Perspective data for monthly unit sales of 6 key biosimilars (bevacizumab, filgrastim, infliximab, pegfilgrastim, rituximab, trastuzumab) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2023.
  • Applied modified exponential decay and logistic growth functions to project long-run market share trends for first movers and later entrants, respectively.
  • Compared median steady-state market shares to determine the first mover advantage.

Main Results:

  • In 4 out of 6 studied US biosimilar markets, first movers are projected to achieve higher long-run market share than all subsequent entrants.
  • The projected long-run steady-state market share advantage for first movers ranges from 8.9 to 12.0 percentage points over the second entrant.
  • Each percentage point of market share advantage is estimated to represent approximately $5 million in annual sales, considering the scale of biologic markets.

Conclusions:

  • A significant long-run market share advantage exists for the first biosimilar entrant in 4 of 6 analyzed US markets, independent of short-term pricing benefits.
  • This substantial long-term financial benefit may explain why some biosimilar developers enter the market prior to resolving all patent disputes.
  • The findings underscore the strategic value of early market entry in the competitive biosimilar landscape.