The silent epidemic: unravelling NCD risk clusters and socioeconomic determinants in Zambia

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a public health challenge in Zambia. This is driven by economic transitions, urbanization, and lifestyle changes. This study examines how NCDs cluster and relate to socioeconomic factors such as education, income, and employment.

Using data from the 2017 Zambia WHO STEPS survey (N = 4,302 adults, mean age: 36.57 years), Latent Class Analysis identified NCD risk profiles, and multinomial logistic regression assessed their associations with socioeconomic determinants.

Three NCD risk groups emerged: Low-Risk (12.0%), Intermediate-Risk (64.3%), and High-Risk (23.7%). The Low-Risk group maintained healthy lifestyles. The Intermediate-Risk group, the most prevalent, showed borderline metabolic indicators and occasional unhealthy behaviours. The High-Risk group exhibited multiple risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and substance use. Males had 22.8 times higher odds of being in the High-Risk group than females. Surprisingly, higher education increased the odds of being in the Moderate- and High-Risk groups.

NCD prevention in Zambia requires risk-stratified strategies: primary prevention for Intermediate-Risk groups and intensive intervention for High-Risk populations. Critical policy actions include taxing tobacco, alcohol, and unhealthy foods; expanding universal screening; integrating NCD care into primary health systems; and addressing urbanization, cultural practices, and healthcare disparities.