Trends in opioid prescribing in Scandinavian countries from 2010 to 2023: Insights from multi-metric evaluation

Monitoring opioid prescribing across different healthcare systems is essential to understanding population-level exposure and informing global health policies. This study examined opioid utilization in Scandinavian countries between 2010 and 2023 using multiple complementary metrics, addressing the limitations of single-metric comparisons.

A repeated cross-sectional study utilizing publicly available drug use statistics on opioid analgesics (ATC group N02A) dispensed in pharmacies from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. We assessed annual changes in utilization based on four metrics: 1-year prevalence (users/1000 inhabitants/year), defined daily doses (DDD)/1000 inhabitants/day (TID), morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs)/TID, and MMEs/user/year.

Opioid use declined in Denmark and Sweden-in both 1-year user prevalence and volumes of MMEs-while stabilizing in Norway. Norway consistently had a higher and stable prevalence of opioid users. Denmark led in total amounts of MMEs dispensed, likely due to more frequent morphine and oxycodone use, whereas Norway ranked highest in DDDs. Denmark and Sweden showed increasing preference for "strong opioids", while codeine-paracetamol and tramadol remained predominant in Norway. The prevalence of oxycodone users increased in Norway and Sweden, with Sweden having the highest prevalence of users but the lowest annual average volumes per user.

This study found major differences in total opioid use and substance-specific prescribing patterns, reflecting diverse pain management strategies across Scandinavia. Changing use patterns suggest evolving prescribing strategies and possible shifts in the target group for opioid pain therapy. In addition, metric-dependent variation underscores the need for using multiple complementary metrics to accurately interpret opioid utilization trends.