Nomogram for spontaneous reduction in pediatric intussusception: a retrospective study

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Gastroenterology
• Medical Imaging and Diagnostics
• Predictive Modeling in Healthcare

Background:

• Intussusception is a common surgical emergency in children.
• Predicting spontaneous reduction of intussusception is crucial for guiding clinical management.
• Current methods for predicting spontaneous reduction are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for spontaneous reduction of intussusception (SROI) in pediatric patients.
• To identify key clinical factors associated with SROI.
• To provide a tool for optimizing treatment decisions in pediatric intussusception.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of clinical data from 290 pediatric intussusception cases.
• Development of a nomogram using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression.
• Validation of the nomogram using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA.

Main Results:

• Six predictors identified for SROI: age, bloody stool, comorbidities, mode of birth, intussusception region, and length.
• Older age and short-segment intussusception were associated with higher SROI probability.
• The nomogram showed high predictive accuracy (AUC 0.922 training, 0.932 validation) and good calibration.

Conclusions:

• The developed nomogram is a reliable tool for predicting SROI in pediatric intussusception.
• Clinical application of the nomogram can aid in treatment decisions, potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.
• This tool can help optimize healthcare resource utilization for pediatric intussusception cases.