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Nomogram for spontaneous reduction in pediatric intussusception: a retrospective study.

Guangyu Wang1, Zhongce Li2, Guangqi Duan1

  • 1Department of Pediatric Surgery, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China.

Frontiers in Pediatrics
|July 24, 2025
PubMed
Summary

A new nomogram accurately predicts spontaneous reduction of intussusception in children. This tool helps doctors decide on treatments, potentially reducing invasive procedures for pediatric intussusception.

Keywords:
childrenintussusceptionnomogrampredictive modelspontaneous reduction

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Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Gastroenterology
  • Medical Imaging and Diagnostics
  • Predictive Modeling in Healthcare

Background:

  • Intussusception is a common surgical emergency in children.
  • Predicting spontaneous reduction of intussusception is crucial for guiding clinical management.
  • Current methods for predicting spontaneous reduction are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for spontaneous reduction of intussusception (SROI) in pediatric patients.
  • To identify key clinical factors associated with SROI.
  • To provide a tool for optimizing treatment decisions in pediatric intussusception.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of clinical data from 290 pediatric intussusception cases.
  • Development of a nomogram using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression.
  • Validation of the nomogram using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA.

Main Results:

  • Six predictors identified for SROI: age, bloody stool, comorbidities, mode of birth, intussusception region, and length.
  • Older age and short-segment intussusception were associated with higher SROI probability.
  • The nomogram showed high predictive accuracy (AUC 0.922 training, 0.932 validation) and good calibration.

Conclusions:

  • The developed nomogram is a reliable tool for predicting SROI in pediatric intussusception.
  • Clinical application of the nomogram can aid in treatment decisions, potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.
  • This tool can help optimize healthcare resource utilization for pediatric intussusception cases.