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Does Local Area Social Mobility Affect Political Alienation?

Andrew McNeil1, Patrick Sturgis2

  • 1Department of Political Science, University College London, London, UK.

Political Studies
|July 24, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Local area social mobility significantly impacts political views. Living in areas with low social mobility increased the likelihood of voting 'Leave' in the EU referendum, highlighting geographic political discontent.

Keywords:
British politicspolitical alienationpolitical geographysocial mobility

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Political Science
  • Geography

Background:

  • Individual social mobility's effect on political outlook is studied, but local area historical social mobility's influence is less explored.
  • Declining upward and increasing downward social mobility rates necessitate understanding their broader societal impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between historical social mobility rates in local areas and political attitudes and behavior.
  • To determine if local social mobility predicts voting behavior in the 2016 UK European Union membership referendum and general election abstention.

Main Methods:

  • Linked individual-level data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKLHS).
  • Utilized small area estimates of social class mobility derived from the decennial census.
  • Analyzed associations between local social mobility and voting behavior and political alienation indicators.

Main Results:

  • Residing in an area with low absolute social mobility correlated with a higher probability of voting 'Leave' in the 2016 EU referendum.
  • No significant association was found between historical local social mobility rates and general election abstention.
  • Local social mobility did not predict attitudinal indicators of political alienation.

Conclusions:

  • Local area social mobility is a significant factor in understanding specific political behaviors, such as the Brexit vote.
  • The findings suggest that declining social mobility contributes to geographic political discontent, particularly concerning major political events.
  • Further research is needed to explore the nuances of social mobility's impact on diverse political attitudes and behaviors.