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Updated: Sep 14, 2025

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Estimation of Survival Probability of Patients with COVID-19 Based on Information of Patients
Mehdi Kazempour Dizaji1,2, Mohammad Varahram1, Ali Zare2
1Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC), National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Background:
In medical science, the probability of survival is a crucial index used to assess patient outcomes. This study aims to estimate the survival probability of patients diagnosed with COVID-19.
Materials And Methods:
In a historical cohort study, the Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the survival probability of 4,372 COVID-19 patients treated at Dr. Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran during the pandemic.
Results:
The study results indicated that 199 patients (4.6%) died during the treatment, while 4,173 patients (95.4%) were censored. The daily survival probability estimation for COVID-19 patients revealed that the highest and lowest survival probabilities within 100 days from disease onset were 96% and 55%, respectively. Additionally, the survival probabilities on the 20th, 50th, 70th, and 90th days from the onset of disease and treatment were 92%, 70%, 63%, and 61%, respectively.
Conclusion:
Estimating the survival probability of COVID-19 patients offers clinicians valuable insights into mortality rates and the effectiveness of common therapeutic strategies in treating the disease.
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