Simple simulation based reconstruction of incidence rates from death data.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Daily deaths data can estimate infectious disease incidence.
• Current methods (non-linear models, deconvolution) have limitations like model artifacts or technical obscurity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a simple, understandable simulation-based method for inferring daily incidence from deaths.
• To provide a transparent and easily deployable tool for public health management.

Main Methods:

• A simulation-based approach is presented.
• This method requires minimal assumptions about the infection-to-death interval distribution.
• It allows for testing various hypothesized incidence trajectories.

Main Results:

• The proposed method offers a straightforward alternative to existing techniques.
• It is designed for ease of understanding and implementation by practitioners.
• The approach facilitates transparent analysis of incidence data.

Conclusions:

• This simulation method can be rapidly and uncontroversially deployed during infectious disease outbreaks.
• It serves as a valuable input for public health management decisions.
• The technique aims to improve preparedness for future pandemics.