Threat Perceptions and Closeness to Refugees: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study

Area of Science:

• Social Psychology
• Intergroup Relations
• Longitudinal Studies

Background:

• Intergroup relations are complex, influenced by perceived threats.
• Understanding the dynamic interplay between threat perception and intergroup closeness is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the longitudinal relationship between perceived realistic and symbolic threats and feelings of closeness toward Ukrainian war refugees.
• To disentangle within-person and between-person effects on intergroup attitudes.

Main Methods:

• A three-wave longitudinal panel design was employed.
• Random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPM) were used to analyze within- and between-person effects.
• Data focused on individuals' perceptions of threats and closeness to Ukrainian refugees.

Main Results:

• Increased feelings of closeness predicted decreased perceptions of both realistic and symbolic threats over time.
• Heightened perceptions of realistic threat significantly reduced subsequent feelings of closeness.
• Perceptions of symbolic threat did not significantly impact subsequent closeness.

Conclusions:

• Realistic threats, particularly those related to economic competition and resource strain, are central to shaping intergroup attitudes.
• The findings highlight the importance of realistic threat perception in the context of intergroup relations with refugees.
• Longitudinal analysis reveals distinct within-person dynamics in intergroup attitude formation.